Archive for the ‘New Economy Competition’ Category

There’s an app developer for that

Saturday, March 3rd, 2012

Apple released figures yesterday touting its impact on the job market. Its study revealed that the tech giant has created 514,000 jobs, over 210,000 of those related directly to Apple’s mobile products. Curiously, Apple chose a late Friday for this release – a time less likely to receive attention outside of trade press since most reporters had already filed their stories for the weekend editions.

Despite Apple’s low-key announcement of this news, it is a very big deal for developers. The growth of the app industry has touched every area of society. Think of any hobby, task, or area of interest. Yes, there is an app for that. Along with it, there’s an app developer who built that app. With passion, some expertise, or an existing business, you can build an app to share your knowledge and experience with thousands of people.

Apple jumpstarted job creation among software developers by creating the mobile app economy. None of this existed four years ago until Apple opened iOS up to developers and created the App Store. More than 600,000 jobs have been created or supplemented by the app marketplace. Today, more than 200,000 people are working to build apps on iOS and many thousands of small business are reaching new customers through innovative apps. The app economy exemplifies the entrepreneurial spirit at its finest.

Here at ACT, as the app developers trade association, we are very proud of the success of our members. We also realize the responsibility we collectively have to be good corporate citizens. We will continue to be a resource for our members to implement best practices in privacy, security, and ethics. We strongly believe that helping app developers do what’s right for their customers is the best way to keep up the enormous momentum of the app economy.

For Mobile Developers It’s About Getting Paid

Wednesday, January 19th, 2011

As a new year begins, software developers are looking for growth opportunities.  Many are turning to the rapidly expanding mobile marketplace.  There has been considerable discussion recently about an issue ACT’s Morgan Reed raised in his September testimony before Congress: measuring the best mobile platform for developers and investors depends largely on how software developers get paid.

At year’s end, Venture capitalist blogger Fred Wilson’s (AVC) revived an argument about ranking mobile platorms for developers. He has long advocated that Android is where developers should focus because of its growing market share and economies of scale. Wilson believes that “mobile economics will trend toward web economics. Not paid, maybe freemium, often free,” and that developers should go to where the eyeballs are.

John Gruber of Daring Fireball has a different take on the economies of scale argument, recognizing that ad-based revenue from freemium or freeware products seldom works for smaller companies.

One problem with the web as a model for mobile economics is that the web economy doesn’t seem to work for many product categories. The web economy works great for Google, not so much for anything that is intended to be sold.

When Gruber says “there seems to be something wrong with the Android Market,” he’s talking about the vast majority of developers, most of whom start small and create a niche product they hope will gradually expand its consumer base.  The Android Market’s ad-based model just doesn’t cut it for most small and emerging software companies because it’s too difficult to achieve the necessary economies of scale to turn pennies-per-impression ads into profits.  Smaller companies need the immediate revenues from direct sales to become profitable and grow.

This problem was surprisingly highlighted at an event Google hosted at its DC offices entitled The App Economy.  Melissa Lee from Innovators Network was in attendance and remarked that all of the small business developers on the panel not employed by Google remarked “how hard it is for a small app developer to make money via ads–the downloads need to be in the thousands, if not millions–these folks find it hard to justify the investment.”

Not only small developers have issues with the Android OS. Peter Vesterbacka, Rovio founder and creator of the hugely popular mobile game Angry Birds, expressed related concerns in a recent interview. He explained the problem with developing for the Android OS is:

[T]he fragmentation of the ecosystem. So many different shops, so many different models. The carriers messing with the experience again. Open but not really open, a very Google centric ecosystem. And paid content just doesn’t work on Android. (emphasis added)

This is the reason why the Congressional hearing on competition in the mobile marketplace last fall was so timely. With Google’s smartphone marketshare expanding toward dominance, a marketplace based solely on ads could be the death knell for small business developers – and devastating to innovation in the mobile space.

As Gruber says, if you want to get noticed, there’s Android Market, but if you want to get paid and support a family, you need to have something like the App Store or WP7 Marketplace. If you want a thriving apps marketplace, you can’t have an ad-based dominant platform. You can’t have a smartphone market dominated by Google.

Standoff: Google versus Attorney General; Search Giant Refuses to Share Spy-Fi Data

Monday, December 20th, 2010

In a brazen move, Google has refused to comply with the Connecticut Attorney General’s request to review the data it improperly collected in its Wi-Spy activities. The search giant acquired this information when its street view cars trolled nearly every urban neighborhood in the country eavesdropping and recording the private communications from unsecured residential and commercial Wi-Fi networks.

Google’s statements explaining why, and to what extent, it conducted this surveillance on American citizens and businesses have evolved over time. Its first statement suggested that the only information collected was the existence and location of Wi-Fi routers. Then the company was “mortified” to learn that, when the street view cars drove by, they had collected any information being transmitted from the router. Google initially explained that only fragmentary bits of data were captured, but after many countries reviewed similar data (the same type of data to which Connecticut is being denied access), it was revealed that full emails, passwords, and personal information had been collected.

Google’s refusal to comply with the Connecticut AG’s request for this data is remarkable for a number of reasons. First, Google has already provided the information sought by Connecticut to many other foreign governments in Europe. Second, Google has advocated for this kind of transparency and openness in government and corporate activity for many years. Moreover, Google is defying the highest-ranking law enforcement official in the state of Connecticut, who has led a 30-state investigation on this matter, and who will begin serving in the U.S. Senate in a couple weeks’ time.

Why would Google refuse to comply with what is essentially a subpoena from the state of Connecticut? What has led them to adopt such a confrontational role and stonewall an investigation? In the company’s own words:

We did not want and have never used the payload data in any of our products and services. We want to delete this data as soon as possible and will continue to work with the authorities to determine the best way forward, as well as to answer their further questions and concerns.

Google may find this defense particularly tricky given that it raises more questions than it does answers for its current tack.

Of course, the best way forward would be to comply with the state Attorney General as it has already done with the foreign governments of Germany, France, Canada, Spain and England. Yet Google seems to be suggesting that this information would be unsafe in the hands of American law enforcement.

Google’s data-security concerns appear largely implausible. Google justifies its actions by citing concerns about the security of the private data that it secretly and improperly collected. Some might find it disturbing that a huge corporation that profits by aggregating personal data is argues that it has improperly aggregated so much personal data of such sensitivity that even the most senior law-enforcement officials cannot be trusted with it.

Nevertheless, if the security of improperly collected data was Google’s real concern, then it could have proactively implemented familiar, proven mechanisms that could permit investigations to proceed while protecting Google’s improperly aggregated personal data. For example, federal-multidistrict-litigation proceedings often create data-depositories to better preserve the security of sensitive data and reduce the costs of re-producing data of widespread interest.

Google could have acted proactively with a group like the National Association of Attorneys’ General (NAAG) to create a secure data depository. This would have let law-enforcement agencies cross-check Google’s explanations while better protecting the security of the personal data that Google improperly aggregated.

Instead Google has provoked a standoff with Connecticut’s Attorney General. Unfortunately for Google, such tactics inevitably breed the distrust and suspicion that produce sweeping, uncoordinated data-production requests from many law-enforcement agencies. Refusing to comply with what is essentially a subpoena from an Attorney General is a high stakes gamble for the company. Google is daring the state to take criminal action for its intransigence, and Google’s current rhetoric doesn’t really answer the question “why?” The privacy and security concerns seem overblown at best, leading us to continue looking for why the company chose to go to war with state Attorneys General to keep this data out of their hands.

Antitrust Chairman’s Reservations over Google-ITA Merger Well Founded

Thursday, December 2nd, 2010

Senator Herb Kohl, Chairman of the Senate Antitrust Subcommittee, has weighed in on the proposed Google-ITA merger — and he has serious reservations about it.  Senator Kohl wrote the Department of Justice expressing his belief that the DOJ should “scrutinize it closely.”  Kohl isn’t standing alone on this.  He joins a growing chorus of critics, Expedia, Orbitz and Travelocity as well as ACT, who fear the proposed merger will endanger the online marketplace for air travel.  He states,

Many of ITA’s customers believe that access to ITA’s technology is critical to competition in online travel search because it cannot be matched by other players in the travel search industry.

Lots and lots of people have written about this.  So what does this mean? Why is this deal so controversial?

ITA’s reservation search technology is licensed by almost everyone in the industry.  ITA’s ownership of it now is not a great cause for concern because it is a small company that does a niche product well. But Google’s acquisition would be troubling precisely because it is not a niche player.  Since it dominates the online search and advertising markets, it would be positioned to capture all the consumer data in the online travel industry. 

At the center of all this commotion is software called QPX.  This product by ITA is important because it powers the reservations systems for nearly two-thirds of all online travel bookings and 90% of all the searches on meta-search engines that combine fare results from a number of different airlines.  This commerce occurs on sites familiar to most people, such as Expedia, Kayak, and Travelocity.  This search industry is significant because 49% of all travel purchases are made online.  QPX is used by almost every online travel agency and is the crucial element that allows the marketplace to function competitively.

Google’s proposed acquisition of ITA has sounded alarm bells throughout the industry.  If it wanted to get into the airline travel agency business, like Kayak or Orbitz, Google could simply have licensed ITA’s technology just like those companies do.  Just like all the other companies do.  That it chose to buy ITA instead is what’s troubling.  A company as big as Google wouldn’t spend $700 million on a product unless it provided a big advantage over its competition. Since Google isn’t even operating in this marketplace yet, the jump it would have to make is substantial.  The most likely way to achieve this would be through leveraging its search dominance. It’s a step that Google CEO Eric Schmidt calls “deep integration.” 

The last time Google deeply integrated was when it acquired Where 2 Technologies to take on MapQuest.  Remember that site?  Just a few years ago you used MapQuest as a verb.  Back then, Google wasn’t a player in location search.  But it integrated its newly purchased maps application into search results, and inflated the search ranking of its own service, while redirecting search traffic away from MapQuest to Google Maps.  Leveraging its search dominance was deadly and very quickly MapQuest was left in the dust.

For Google’s “deep integration” of ITA to be worth its $700 million price tag, revenues will likely come initially from advertising where the company generates 99% of its profits.  Airfare search results will be ranked based on whichever website pays the most in the advertising auction.  Think Sponsored Links.  This will add an extra layer of expense for online travel agents meaning higher prices for consumers. 

But there’s an element to the merger that no one is talking about.

While Google licenses ITA, it will have access to every transaction record of everyone in the online travel industry using QPX.  It will possess all the market data and customer history in the industry because that will be a condition for licensing the ITA software.  Just as Google uses the data it acquires from search, search advertising and website analytics to drive its advertising sales, it will have the benefit of using all the market data that exists for the online travel industry.

And if Google decides to directly enter the market, it will be well prepared.  It will know at exactly which price point it can undercut its competitors and where their breaking point is on profitability.  Google will be able to sell at that price point because it will not have to pay to license its own software or advertise on its own site.  Moreover, it will be able to deliver airfare search results immediately on its search page in exactly the same manner it handles map searches — eliminating the need to ever click away from a Google page.  This is why the future of the online travel industry is in peril if this deal goes through.

Now, keep in mind Google offers assurances that it is trustworthy and is pursuing this deal because it will be “driving more potential customers to airlines” and “solve end user problems.”  But this is the same company that brags about operating right at the line of creepiness, and that its stored knowledge of users is so vast and dangerous that children should change their names upon entering adulthood, lest their youthful transgressions are later used against them.

No matter how much it purports to do no evil, Google has become such a huge force online that it can blot out competition effortlessly.  If Google succeeds in controlling ITA, how much success can new entrants have in that industry?  How much innovation can be expected to occur when the tools and rules come the market dominant company?  Questions such as these have led the European Commission to initiate an antitrust investigation of Google, a step the New York Times today suggested is the course the U.S. should pursue.  Tasked with preserving competition in the marketplace, the DOJ will have to give full consideration to these issues before making its decision on ITA.

EC Antitrust Investigation of Google Is No Surprise

Tuesday, November 30th, 2010

It is hardly a surprise that the European Commission has begun an antitrust investigation into Google’s internet search business.  Critics have long claimed that the search giant has abused its dominant position to undermine competition. The number of smaller competitors discovering their search rankings have been manipulated continues to rise, particularly in niche areas, like local search, where Google has struggled to compete.

Were there no history of this anticompetitive behavior, some might convince you there was no cause for alarm.  Yet, the story of MapQuest reminds small competitors just how quickly they can become Google’s Internet roadkill.  When the search giant purchased Where2 Communications, it integrated that company’s map product into its search engine.  Google then adjusted its search engine results to direct users away from MapQuest and to its own new map site.   In no time, MapQuest went from industry leader to afterthought.

The severity of this anticompetitive behavior is such that the search giant is also the target of antitrust investigations in Italy, Germany and France.   Given its unwillingness to explain the methodology for ranking its search results, Google faces a difficult road ahead with European regulators.  And while the antitrust issue is at the forefront, the chorus of criticism over its Street View privacy violations provides Google an unwelcome backdrop.  If experience is any guide, regulators often expand these investigations to cover the full range of a company’s misconduct, and that could end up being a very long and difficult process for Google.

Senator Hatch Grills FTC’s Leibowitz on Antitrust Power Grab

Monday, June 14th, 2010

As we’ve discussed before, the FTC recently decided to dust off its Section 5 authority to go after “unfair methods of competition” in lieu of using its tradition antitrust authority (Section 2) to pursue some of its tougher cases. This has many antitrust experts concerned, most notably, Bob Litan, former Clinton administration. In a discussion of the FTC’s use of Section 5 authority in its Intel lawsuit, Litan argued that:

The FTC apparently seeks to avoid proving harm to competition under the established standards of Section 2 because the causal link between the conduct it challenges and any conceivable harm to competition is weak. At a minimum, therefore, the relief sought by the FTC should reflect the tenuous connection between the conduct it challenges and the potential for harm to competition.

Apparently, Senator Orrin Hatch (R-UT) is also concerned by the FTC’s use of Section 2

During June 9th Senate Judiciary Committee’s hearing on Antitrust, Senator Hatch asked FTC Chairman Jon Leibowitz some tough questions. Hatch asked (based on our unofficial but mostly accurate transcript of the event):

I have serious concerns about the FTC’s decision to bring what are essentially antitrust cases under Section 5 of the FTC Act rather than under the Sherman Act…My concern is that there is a breadth of case law under the Sherman Act that gives businesses clear guidance as to what types of conduct are lawful or unlawful… However, it does seem to me that, with the FTC’s decision to start bringing cases under Section 5 of the FTC Act, these companies may see themselves facing complaints for conduct that they had good reason to believe was allowable under the law…Should we not be concerned that the uncertainty inherent in the FTC’s use of Section 5 will prevent businesses from competing aggressively?

Leibowitz Does Little to Reassure Hatch and Others on Section 5 Use

Leibowitz explained that the “only purpose of Section 5” is “to make some things punishable, to prevent some things that cannot be punished or prevented under the antitrust law.” He then went on to suggest that the more rigorous economic analysis that has been required since then 1970’s means that the FTC needs to find a way around Section 2 restrictions.

And it’s extraordinarily important, and again, what the Chicago school did, I want to go back to this, because in the 1960s and 70s, there was no need to use our unfair methods of competition authority, or little reason to use it, because our antitrust authority was read so broadly. We’ve seen those laws circumscribed – I think for some very good reasons – and again, I think the Chicago school’s emphasis on efficiencies and rigorous economic analyses is a good thing. But, having said that, you want us to stop anticompetitive conduct that harms consumers. That’s what we’re trying to do, in an area in which antitrust has been limited, especially because of treble damages, which we’re not able to get. It’s appropriate, I believe, and I think a bipartisan majority of the Commission believes, to use this authority on occasion, not always.

It seems that Leibowitz is arguing that requiring actual economic analysis of alleged “harms to competition” is too high a bar for his agency. They need to be able to prevent business practices they believe are harmful to competition and consumers, even if the economic analysis suggests otherwise. And in this new regime, companies will have little guidance as to what the FTC will consider legal vs. illegal, and will only know what the actual “law” is once they go to court on an appeal.

Antitrust Experts Engage Debate (Virtually) Merits of FTC’s Use of Section 5 Authority in Intel Case

Monday, April 19th, 2010

Over the past few weeks an online debate has been brewing between antitrust scholars over the FTC case against Intel.  The focus of the debate has been the FTC’s decision to pursue most of its case using its Section 5 authority to prevent “unfair and deceptive” practices, rather than its Section 2 authority for combating anti-competitive behavior.

The discussion began with a piece by Bob Litan, former Deputy Assistant Attorney General in the Antitrust Division of the Justice Department in the Clinton Administration, entitled “The FTC’s Radical Application of Section 5.”  As the title suggests, Litan has some serious concerns about the FTC’s case in general and its application of Section 5.  It’s a pretty compelling piece that I recommend to all you antitrust geeks, but if you’re short on time/attention span I’ll try to summarize.

Litan believes (like we do) that the FTC has a pretty difficult case to make, given that:

  • The levels of innovation and price cutting from the semiconductor industry are unparalleled by any other industry (see our paper on Exponential Innovation)
  • The FTC seeks to prevent Intel’s above-cost discounting of chips, a practice that Supreme Court has regularly defended and cautioned against regulatory interference of such pro-competitive activities.

Therefore, he argues:

The FTC apparently seeks to avoid proving harm to competition under the established standards of Section 2 because the causal link between the conduct it challenges and any conceivable harm to competition is weak. At a minimum, therefore, the relief sought by the FTC should reflect the tenuous connection between the conduct it challenges and the potential for harm to competition.

Yet, the FTC is pursuing pretty heavy-handed remedies.

Litan then goes on to make make compelling cases for how the FTC’s proposed remedies transform Intel into a regulated utility, which could actually raise prices, reduce innovation, and create “a radical and sweeping re-interpretation of this nation’s antitrust laws, with potentially grave implications for private incentives to innovate and compete.”

Enter David Balto, former policy director of the FTC and current Senior Fellow at the Center for American Progress. Balto has been consistently supportive of the FTC’s case against Intel and took issue with the Litan’s reading http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2010/04/balto_ftc_intel.html of the situation.  He argues:

These predictions of doom are exaggerated and misplaced. The reality is  far more straightforward.

Balto argues that three different foreign antitrust authorities have charged Intel with anticompetitive conduct, and Intel’s conduct effectively limited consumer choice through its “rebate schemes.”  Balto goes on to cover familiar territory by summarizing the arguments made the FTC and other antitrust regulators, and suggesting that Litan’s fears are far outweighed by the potential damage Intel could inflict on competition in the future, especially in the GPU market.  He summarizes his points with:

The FTC’s action is perhaps most important for its focus on dynamic  competition. Innovation is central to the growth of the U.S. economy.  Exclusionary conduct that dampens innovation extracts a significant cost  on the economy.

However, Balto never really addresses Litan’s concerns about the application of Section 5 in this case, but argues that the use of Section 5 authority is not radical and is in fact warranted in this case. While he does say that the FTC’s Section 2 case could stand on its own, Balto actually confirms Litan’s thesis that the FTC pursued the Section 5 claim to free itself from the bar of demonstrable consumer harm.

Section 5 enables the FTC to go beyond narrow competition concerns. As  the Supreme Court has held in FTC v. Sperry & Hutchinson Co., 405  U.S. 233 (1972), “like a court of equity, the Commission may consider  public values beyond simply those enshrined in the letter or encompassed in the spirit of the antitrust laws.”

Perhaps his most compelling argument for the use of Section 5 authority is the speed at which the administrative courts can reach a decision, but that is a double-edged sword.  Acting quickly can help the FTC address concerns before market opportunities are closed, but it can also magnify the cost of mistaken action as well. In the end, however, this was not one of Balto’s more compelling arguments for regulatory activism.

It wasn’t long before Geoff Manne of Lewis & Clark Law School offered his own rebuttal to the rebuttal.  On the Truth on the Market blog, Manne posted an article entitled “David Balto (and the FTC) gets it woefully wrong on  Intel <http://www.truthonthemarket.com/2010/04/14/david-balto-and-the-ftc-gets-it-woefully-wrong-on-intel/ .”

Manne highlights many of the failings of Balto’s piece.

  • He notes that Balto’s reliance on decisions by three foreign commission as evidence of Intel’s liability is misleading at best, given that “it is  well-accepted that conviction by a party acting as judge, jury  and  prosecutor is less than decisive.”  This is doubly true given that the FTC is pursuing conduct that the other jurisdictions never even looked at.
  • He also notes that, despite Balto’s assertion, none of the other Commission’s provided any evidence or specific conclusions that Intel’s conduct led to higher prices.

On Section 5, Manne provides his most effective rebuke of Balto, however.  Manne notes that Balto is completely dismissive of error costs concerns (such as those made by Litan) because of his certainty that agencies “don’t err in the cases they bring-only in the cases they don’t bring.” He then takes on Balto’s argument that the use of Section 5 is critical to ensuring “dynamic competition”

Balto finishes by praising the FTC’s focus on dynamic competition and  by comparing the case to the DOJ’s Microsoft case–as if to highlight  how perfectly off-base his assessment is.  The DOJ and the courts in Microsoft were so forward looking that they dismissed the threat to Microsoft  from Linux and didn’t even realize that there was a threat from Google.   Larry Lessig has announced that he “Blew It on Microsoft <http://webmonkey.wired.com/wired/archive/15.01/posts.html?pg=6> ” for failing to appreciate the dynamic market.   This case by the FTC is built on theoretical models of speculative harms and against copious evidence of present-day benefits to consumers.  If this is how the agency focuses on “dynamic” competition, count me out.

The debate (online and offline) over the FTC’s case and the use of Section 5 will certainly rage on, but it’s becoming increasingly clear that the FTC’s case is anything but a slam dunk.

Prices Down. Speed Up. Feb 2010 Edition

Thursday, March 18th, 2010


Is the drop in average computer chip price over the past year. The same computer processor that cost you $100 in February 2009, cost only $86 this past February according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics study released yesterday.


Is the number of months in a row that the average price for computer chips has dropped since 2000 according to the BLS numbers.


Is the average increase in speed and computation power in computer chips every 2 years.


Is the number of industries with a comparable year over year price decreases and performance gains.

Why?

For all the allegations made by the Federal Trade Commission and others about Intel’s anti-competitive tactics, none of these has trickled down into consumer harm. This reality will make it difficult for the FTC and is likely the reason the FTC chose to use its Section 5 authority rather than its authority under Section 2 of the Sherman Act.

The Unfortunate Irony of Yesterday’s FTC Lawsuit Against Intel

Thursday, December 17th, 2009

As most readers know by now, the Federal Trade Commission ignored the pleas of ACT and 37 member companies for caution, and filed a lawsuit against Intel yesterday charging that the company has abused its dominant position in the computer chip market.  What you may have missed yesterday, however, is the rather ironically timed announcement from the Obama administration that it is launching new policies to spur more manufacturing it the United States.  In a statement, Vice President Biden said:

“We need legal, tax and regulatory regimes that promote American manufacturing and do not place an undue burden on those who wish to manufacture products in America.”


Why is the timing ironic?

Intel is one of the last great American manufacturers. While Intel does some manufacturing abroad, the vast majority of its chips are built by its 40,000 American workers.  Most of Intel’s fabrication facilities are in the United States, including Arizona, California, Colorado, Massachusetts and Oregon, and the company has announced that it will spend $7 billion to build more facilities here.

The FTC filed its case on behalf of AMD and Nvidia, two companies who have decided to offshore nearly ALL of their manufacturing. AMD’s most advanced manufacturing facility is in Germany, and is “more of a German government fab than an AMD fab” after the German government invested more than $1.5 billion to build it.

When the European Competition Commissioner decided that Intel abused European antitrust law, she crowed that Intel should change its tagline from “Sponsors of Tomorrow” to “Sponsors of the European Taxpayer.” One would hope that the American government would not have similar designs on taking down a company that provides so many high paying American jobs.


What’s the Rush to Sue Intel?

Clearly, the fact that Intel is one of the last great US manufacturers does not exempt it from the rules of fair competition.  Like all companies, however, Intel should be guaranteed a full, fair, and transparent investigation by the FTC.  However, that simply doesn’t seem to be the case here.  As we said yesterday:

Following the settlement between Intel and AMD that resolved the core issues that the FTC has been investigating for more than two years, the FTC has slapped together a completely new set of allegations into this complaint. The result is a complaint reads like a late homework assignment, with little substance and lots of rhetoric . . . The real question is “why is the FTC rushing this case?” They took more than 2 years to investigate their concerns about Intel’s pricing programs without filing a case, but they are now pushing these new claims out the door without giving them more than a couple months of thought?”

A regulatory regime where the federal government rushes to sue one of its biggest manufacturers without bothering to collect evidence, and uses it as a guinea pig for inventive legal theories is probably NOT going to “promote” more US-based manufacturing.


From Pac-Man to Realistic Men: New ACT Paper on Software Creation Through Processor Innovation

Tuesday, December 15th, 2009

PacmanACT represents the interests of software companies, but today we’ve released a new paper trumpeting the virtues of hardware.

We highlight how software developers and computer chip makers increasingly depend on one another for better products. This symbiotic hardware/software relationship is crucial for the sort of exponential innovation we’ve grown accustomed to in the IT industry. And it is something ACT recently highlighted in a letter to the FTC signed by 37 software developers.

The old days of understanding computer processors and its effect on software was easy. Chips increased in clock speed (first in MHz, then in GHz) and this made software run faster. This worked well for years, but then it became apparent that high clock speed processors often ran idle because other system components couldn’t keep up. These processors also ran very hot, consuming lots of power and creating heat problems.

Today’s chips take a different approach. Chips now have processors with multiple cores (or CPUs) to separately but simultaneously handle independent tasks. In a survey of ACT members that we conducted for the paper, 58% of the respondents identified multicore technology as the processor advancement that has most improved their software products. One member said “multicore makes programming harder, but when my apps leverage it, they can do more.”

But how do programmers know what to do so they can better leverage processor designs such as multicore? Every major chip manufacturer worth a grain of sand has established support programs and created tools for the developer community. Sun has its Sun Developer Network, Intel has a Software Partner Program (and just announced a new software development kit (SDK) for its mobile Atom processor), and AMD has the CodeAnalyst Performance Analyzer to analyze software performance and help developers optimize applications.

In some ways it seems like chip manufacturers are sucking up to software developers. We like this attention–after all, without software, silicon is just sand! Chip makers depend on software programmers to maximize new hardware features. For the development of Windows 7, Microsoft and Intel worked together to optimize the OS for multicore. Windows 7 divides tasks like video encoding over multiple cores and threads to run apps more quickly, and kernal changes improve power management. For example, DVD playback on a battery-powered Windows 7 laptop is 16 watts, compared to 20 watts on Windows Vista.

Unchartered 2 gameIt’s not just the OS that takes advantage of new processors. Software for gaming, HD video and video editing, cloud computing, database apps, mobile apps–it’s enough to make my head spin. Just compare the drastic differences in levels of detail in Pac-man, which was introduced in 1980, with Uncharted 2 (the image to the right), which won the E3 2009 Video Games award for best graphics (it’s cool stuff…see the game trailer here).

But my head is spinning even more with the thought that antitrust regulators are on the prowl. Intel is under the gun in the European Union and here in the U.S. I’m still trying to figure out…why? From 2000 to 2008, processor performance increased 28 times while prices fell by 50%. And according to the Department of Labor statistics, the quality-adjusted price of CPUs has declined more than any of the 1,200 products it has tracked (including software, storage devices, PCs). The real cost of processing power has dropped roughly 40% annually over the past 10 years. Competition Converging

The reason for increased power and decreased prices? AMD, IBM, Intel, Sun, Texas Instruments (among others) annually invest billions of dollars for R&D. And I’d expect this to be the case for a long time in the future, because competition is becoming fierce and is converging as smartphones become more PC-like and computers become more mobile. So watch out AMD and Intel…here comes ARM, Marvell, Qualcomm, Samsung and TI.

Innovation, R&D spending, increased competitive outlook…the processor market has all the hallmarks of a market working for consumers. Regulatory action is the wildcard here–let’s hope it doesn’t trump the benefits of the current ecosystem.